In the Groundwork October 2024 webinar, homelessness was explored through an insightful presentation by Gregg Colburn, author of Homelessness is a Housing Problem.
Solomon Burchfield, Executive Director of New Beginnings moderated the discussion and first set the table for the current state of homelessness in NWA.
Homelessness in NWA
In January 2024, 412 individuals were counted as homeless in Northwest Arkansas, though this is likely an undercount. Many are forced to sleep in shelters, cars, or tents, and about 2,700 students lack stable housing, often staying in hotels or on couches.
Burchfield identified three groups impacted by the crisis: renters paying more than 30% of their income on housing, those facing unexpected homelessness due to life disruptions, and the chronically homeless, who make up 30% of the homeless population but use a disproportionate number of services. Burchfield highlighted the need for a regional response, citing the efforts of organizations like New Beginnings, 7Hills, and NWA Continuum of Care.
Homelessness Across the Nation
Gregg Colburn's presentation examined why homelessness varies so widely across the U.S., focusing on how housing markets, rather than individual characteristics, drive homelessness. "Homelessness is creeping into every community in the country," Colburn explained, noting that in cities like Seattle, rapid growth and a lack of housing supply have left many behind.
While individual factors such as domestic violence, addiction, mental illness, and job loss contribute to homelessness, Colburn stressed that these vulnerabilities are magnified in areas with tight housing markets.
Colburn used the analogy of musical chairs to explain homelessness, shifting the focus from individual vulnerabilities to the fact that there aren’t enough "chairs" or homes for everyone. He emphasized that a structural housing deficit forces vulnerable individuals to lose out, underscoring that homelessness is largely driven by a shortage of available housing.
Homelessness is a Housing Problem Introduction
Colburn's book sought to uncover why homelessness rates vary so widely across the U.S. Through a data-driven approach, he found that while poverty, mental illness, and substance use are often linked to homelessness, these factors alone do not account for regional differences. Instead, a tight housing market tends to amplify these vulnerabilities.
Despite differences in how states measure homelessness—some at the city level and others at the county level—the relationship between homelessness and per capita rates consistently showed a striking 5:1 ratio across both regions.
Colburn's research explored numerous potential explanations for rising homelessness rates in certain areas. If an explanation couldn’t account for the variations observed, it was set aside. The researchers focused on three main factors: individual circumstances, local context, and housing market dynamics.
Individual Circumstances
Poverty
Colburn explored the relationship between poverty and homelessness, which seems counterintuitive at first glance. Colburn explained, "homelessness of course is a poverty problem. If you're poor, you're more likely to experience homelessness." However, data shows a downward relationship between poverty and homelessness—places with higher poverty tend to have lower rates of homelessness. For example, Detroit has the highest rate of poverty for a large city but a lower rate of homelessness than affluent cities like Seattle. This means the consequences of poverty look different in an impoverished city versus an affluent city, which still does not explain regional variations of homelessness.
Mental Illness
The research on serious mental illness shows that according to Colburn, “there is basically no statistical relationship" between serious mental illness and rates of homelessness across states. Despite varying rates of mental illness, this variation has almost no explanatory power for homelessness. Every state has individuals experiencing serious mental illness, but the data reveals that states with higher rates of mental illness do not necessarily have higher rates of homelessness. Colburn explained, "we don’t see more homelessness in places with high rates of serious mental illness."
Substance Use Disorder
The data shows a similarly weak relationship between substance use disorder and homelessness, despite the common narrative linking the two. For instance, areas like West Virginia, which have been severely impacted by the opioid epidemic, have not experienced a corresponding surge in homelessness. High drug use in states like Tennessee, Louisiana, and West Virginia does not correlate with high homelessness rates, suggesting that substance use alone does not drive homelessness as many assume.
Black/African American Populations
Black Americans are significantly overrepresented in the homeless population, not because race itself causes homelessness, but due to systemic racism and structural inequalities. Colburn's research revealed that the racial composition of a city does not directly explain homelessness rates. For example, cities with larger Black populations, like Chicago, do not have higher homelessness rates compared to predominantly white cities like Seattle, underscoring that racism, rather than race, contributes to this disparity.
With individual circumstances failing to explain regional variations in homelessness, Colburn shifted his focus to local contexts for potential answers.
Local Contexts
Weather
Colburn examined the theory that warm weather contributes to higher homelessness rates, using LA and Chicago as examples. While it's true that LA's warmer climate may contribute to its higher rate of homelessness, there are warm locations like Arizona and Texas and Florida that don’t experience homelessness at the same rate as LA. Conversely, cold cities like New York and Boston also have high homelessness rates. Colburn argued that "this simple blaming of Mother Nature" doesn't hold up when analyzing homelessness across the U.S. as a whole.
Social Services
A common belief is that more generous social services attract homelessness, but research dispelled that myth. Colburn argued, "people are not relocating around the United States to find slightly better benefits." States with different levels of generosity in their Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) programs don't show a corresponding variation in homelessness. Colburn explained, there is no statistical relationship. Most homeless individuals in states like California are "homegrown," meaning they lived in the state before becoming homeless. Colburn urges, "rather than blaming people who are moving in, we should look in the mirror" and address local factors contributing to homelessness.
Politics
Colburn challenges the argument that Democratic policies lead to higher rates of homelessness by comparing cities like Seattle and California to Democratic-run cities like Chicago and Cleveland, where homelessness is not as prevalent. This demonstrates that local politics alone cannot explain regional variations in homelessness rates.
With local contexts also failing to present regional variations in homelessness, Colburn began to look at the housing market as a possible explanation.
Housing Market
Median Contract Rent
There is a clear relationship between rent prices and homelessness. "You’ll see a more significant statistical relationship where rents are high, homelessness is high." The rising cost of rent is a significant driver of homelessness, particularly in cities where affordability is a growing concern.
Vacancy Rates
Low rental vacancy rates are a strong indicator of homelessness. When rental vacancy rates drop below 5%, "it suggests that you have a deficit of rental housing," and homelessness rates tend to increase.
In places like Northwest Arkansas, vacancy rates have dropped to 3.3% (Skyline Report, First Half 2024), indicating housing scarcity. Colburn explained, "lower vacancy rates lead to higher rents," making it difficult for people to remain housed when faced with unexpected challenges like health emergencies or job loss.
The tight rental market and rising rents clearly drive-up homelessness, but high rents alone don't explain everything. Another factor often considered is population growth, which led to Colburn questioning: is homelessness simply a result of more people moving to certain areas?
Population Change
Contrary to popular belief, there is "almost no statistical relationship" between population growth and homelessness. This finding is surprising because fast-growing areas in the South, for example, are not experiencing parallel increases in homelessness. The key difference lies in these areas' ability to expand their housing supply to accommodate population growth.
While population growth alone doesn’t drive homelessness, the real issue lies in how well an area’s housing market can respond to that growth. The ability to increase housing supply, or lack thereof, is a crucial factor in determining whether rising populations lead to homelessness.
Housing Supply Elasticity
Colburn introduced the concept of Housing Supply Elasticity. This concept measures how quickly housing supply can respond to changes in demand. A market that is “elastic” responds to demand increases by building a lot of housing.
However, in areas with challenging topography or strict regulations, it's difficult to scale housing production. Cities with rapid population growth and an inelastic housing supply, like Seattle and San Francisco, face homelessness crises because they cannot build enough housing to meet demand. This lack of supply results in low vacancy rates, high rents, and subsequent homelessness.
Solutions
We have a scale problem when it comes to addressing homelessness. As Colburn points out, "most of the investments that we’ve made have been inadequate to the scale of the crisis." Much of the effort in the U.S. is focused on crisis response—emergency measures that are life-saving, but not enough to solve the underlying issue.
Colburn uses the analogy of blaming the emergency room for people still breaking their arms. The ER exists to treat injuries, but it doesn’t prevent them. Similarly, the crisis response system helps those who have lost their housing, but without stable housing options, people will continue to need it at increasing rates.
To address homelessness, responsibility must be shared between the private and public sectors. Colburn explains that while "we need to create conditions that allow private developers to build more housing," this alone won't solve the problem. There are many who won’t be able to afford market-rate housing, which is where public sector intervention is necessary, ensuring subsidies are in place to help those in need.
We’ve seen the consequences of leaving housing entirely to the market, and it’s time to ensure that more people have access to housing, given the high costs of development.
The U.S. has seen success before—in the 2010s, the U.S. cut veteran homelessness in half by investing directly in housing for veterans. This targeted approach can be replicated on a larger scale for the general population, proving that when we align resources with the scale of the issue, real progress can be made.
NWA Takeaways
Local governments have the power to address housing shortages by encouraging more diverse housing options. As seen in Seattle, policies like the multi-family tax exemption incentivize developers to build multi-family housing with affordable units by waiving property taxes for a set number of years. But it's not just about financial incentives—it's about rethinking land use.
To truly accommodate growth, Colburn explained, "we need to legalize duplexes, attached single-family dwellings, and multi-family housing," because relying solely on single-family homes won’t meet the demand. Minneapolis serves as a model, having eliminated single-family-only zoning and allowing 3-4 units on every parcel, showcasing a path forward for other cities.
One of the most impactful actions you can take is to show up at local meetings. As Colburn explains, "if you show up when we're talking about a new multi-family development and say, 'I think we need more housing in our community,' you can provide the critical counterpoint to opposition." This simple act can influence the future of the community’s housing market.
By shifting the focus from individual blame to structural solutions, communities can create conditions that prevent homelessness. "If we continue to blame Joe on the street for his circumstances, it absolves us of responsibility," Gregg concluded. "But if instead, we recognize the structural factors contributing to Joe's situation, we are forced to ask: what can we, as a society, do to change this trajectory?"
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A special thank you to New Beginnings, 7Hills Homeless Center and NWA Continuum of Care for co-hosting and all the work they do for the NWA community.
